For 28 years, Rep. David Dreier has been the man for the 26th District, brushing off challengers in election after election with little worry or concern.

This year, however, the powerful House Republican from San Dimas faces a more serious - or at least well-funded - challenger than he has in years.

With more than $500,000 already in hand, Democratic local businessman Russ Warner's bid for the 26th District congressional seat also comes at a time when Dreier's party is increasingly out of favor with the public.

Even so, local political experts don't give Warner much of a chance.

"Dreier's a heavy favorite, given that he is an incumbent with a strong fundraising advantage and name recognition," said Jack Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College.

But even if Dreier is not overly concerned about Warner's chances, he is not ignoring the race. Last week, a flier accusing Warner of bad business practices and vague positions was mailed out to area residents.

The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has also been circulating e-mails about Warner, highlighting old tax liens against his magazine distribution business and the fact that his corporate business license was suspended earlier this year for late payment of state fees.

Asked about the fliers, Warner appeared flattered by the attention from his opponent.

"Can you imagine a 28-year congressman coming out with a piece that's so negative?" he asked. "I've never seen anything like it in this district before. He must be really concerned."

Warner has since had his license reinstated, according to John Barrett of the California Franchise Tax Board.

Warner added that the tax liens indicated he may have initially underpaid his taxes over several years in the past. The liens on his record are between 1992 and 1997.

"In 1992, we were only about five years old, and we were just starting to make a little bit of money," Warner said.

He said he may have given himself a pay raise without applying the raise to the state rubric used to calculate taxes.

"It doesn't mean we did anything wrong," he said.

Warner is counting on support from independents to push him to victory, and he will need them: The 26th District is about 42 percent registered Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 19 percent decline to state.

Dreier, too, will need support from independents, said Allan Hoffenblum, a longtime GOP consultant. But unlike Warner, he added, Dreier has a long history of courting independents, and he has name recognition.

Dreier "has been battered in the past not so much from the left, but from the right, on the immigration issue and on others," Hoffenblum said. "It's a district that has a lot of independents, but a lot of them end up being moderates who vote Republican in the end."

In an attempt to appeal to those voters, Warner has played up his role as a small businessman and has said that securing federal resources for local entrepreneurs would be a priority for him in Congress.

It is for that reason that the RCCC is targeting his record as a businessman, said Hector Barajas, the organization's communications director.

"He likes to portray himself as a successful local businessman and has made it a cornerstone of his campaign. But in reality, he can't pay his taxes or keep his business license active," Barajas said.

Dreier declined to comment on the race, forwarding questions to the RCCC.

While the RCCC has gotten involved, the Democratic Congressional Candidate Committee has not.

So far, they have not spent any money on the race, Warner admits, although he said he is hoping that as Election Day nears they may get involved.

Warner may face other money problems in challenging Dreier. Although he has done well in fundraising, he spent a lot on the primary, where he defeated Cynthia Matthews, a student who ran low-budget but surprisingly effective campaigns against Dreier in 2004 and 2006. She also beat Warner in the primary in 2006.

While Matthews lost twice to Dreier, she was able to bring in more votes than experts and observers expected. In 2004, she garnered 43 percent of the vote to Dreier's 54 percent. In 2006, she won 38 percent of the vote to Dreier's 57 percent. In previous campaigns Dreier often won by dozens of percentage points.

The primary campaign left Warner with about $125,000 in campaign cash, according to his most recent campaign finance reports. He also has loaned his campaign nearly $200,000, leaving him in a position to take on a large personal debt if he can't raise more money.

But even if Warner does not win the race, the future of the district could change. A neighboring district, the 29th, runs through Glendale, Pasadena and Burbank. For years it was a Republican stronghold. That changed in 2000, when the current congressman, Rep. Adam Schiff, defeated the incumbent Republican, Jim Rogan.

Although that election was affected by Rogan's role in the impeachment trial of former President Bill Clinton, the 1998 election highlighted the coming shift of the district, as Rogan won by only four points.

Dreier's district runs along the foothills from La Ca ada Flintridge to Rancho Cucamonga. It has seen a decrease in Republican registration since 2001, when 47 percent of registered voters were Republican, versus 42 percent today. Democratic registration, however, has remained flat at around 35 percent in that time, leading to more voters who decline to state their party affiliation.

David Gershwin, a political consultant at the Cerrell and Associates firm, said he thinks the district could change over the years, like the area around Pasadena changed.

"You see changing ethnicity there, so you are seeing the political climate change as well," Gershwin said.

He added that if Warner were able to perform well against Dreier in November, it might inspire him to run with a better-funded campaign in 2010 or attract a better-known candidate to run.

But Pitney disagreed. He said that although the Los Angeles area has been trending more Democratic, there is not enough evidence to support a large demographic shift in Dreier's district.

"It's a little different because in that district you had heavy urbanization in Glendale and Pasadena," Pitney said. "Even as you see some demographic change in who lives there, you won't necessarily see a huge political shift."