Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The Futility of Well Wishers and Genocide Fighters

"Fight the genocide in Darfur. Support Challah for Hunger."

Such slogans would be laughable if they weren't so damaging, but alas they are damaging for the very virtue they extol -- "charity." But it is not charity in the Christian sense -- that is to say "uplifting" sense of the term -- but in the modern welfare state idea of food as a right to be doled out by a worldwide welfare state.

The Stop Genocide movement is really, at base, an effort to expand the power of the U.N. (Useless Nations) at the expense of America's interests, of which they are few in Darfur. Unlike the days of old when activism meant going to fight against evil as American communists and fellow travelers did against Fransisco Franco's Spain, most of the people calling for boots on the ground in Darfur aren't the ones that will bear the brunt of the consequences that will likely occur.

In case you were wondering, the Claremont Colleges have divested from Darfur, all but eliminating the only influence we could have had in the region and giving over said influence to the Chinese. Curiously, though, the same group of students that called for divestment works to provide "charity" for the people of Darfur by enabling students to donate via PayPal, Flex, cash to their cause. Instead of actual work that would be provided by American companies and their involvement in Sudan, modern progressives would rather put the Sudanese on their beneficent -- and unpredictable-- doles.

Does that mean that I oppose economic sanctions? In principle, no, but in practice, they have seldom, if ever achieved the ends they sought.

You might remember a post I wrote several months ago on this very point.

Brian T. Kennedy of The Claremont Institute and I had coffee a week ago and discussed this very matter vis a vis Iran. Mr. Kennedy argued that Iran is a modern day evil, analogous to the tyranny of the Soviet Union or Nazism. After some deliberation, we agreed that there were an evil regime and that something must be done to disrupt that regime's stability, though we did not agree as to ends. Mr. Kennedy still favored a divestment, while I cautioned him against such rash action as depriving ourselves of leverage over what is an evil regime.

I argued that the progressives in the academy might retaliate by boycotting Israel, which I take as a serious threat. Since our conversation, I have thought hard on how a state might short of war disrupt another state's activities in favor of some end.

How might we unseat leaders that are hostile to our interests?

One such way is assassination, which would be the surest way of guaranteeing a regime change, as Harvard economist Ben Olken makes clear in his paper described by the American.

In “Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War,” Olken and Jones looked at the effects of political assassination, using a strict empirical methodology that takes into account economic conditions at the time of the killing and what Olken calls a “novel data set” of assas­sination attempts, successful and unsuccessful, between 1875 and 2004.

Olken and Jones discovered that a country was “more likely to see democratization follow­ing the assassination of an autocratic leader,” but found no substantial “effect following assassinations—or assassination attempts—on democratic leaders.” They concluded that “on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy.”

But it seems unlikely that the Challah for Hunger people would favor such means, preferring to bake bread while others die.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

That econ paper is really interesting, but it doesn't make the point you want it too.

The first thing that struck me was that while their data shows a trend towards democracy, they don't have any data on the nationality of the assassin.

Further, they even discuss how using assassination as a tool of conflict has mixxed results because a failure to assassinate has a negative trend towards democracy among autocrats. That means that when they take into acount that 75% of all attempts fail, an assassination attempt is likely to be a wash, unless you can beat the odds that you are going to kill the leader.

Further, who would you even kill in a country like Iran? For as much press as Ahmajinedad gets, Iran has a pretty widely defused command structure. I doubt that figures from the 1880's are going to help you figure out that effect.

The author doesn't even seem to take fixxed effects of the country in question into account. It's possible that assassinations work better in some countries than others.

All that said, it's a cool paper in the way they use failed assassination attempts as an identification varible. But beware summary articles about econometrics, as untrained observers can extrapolate conclusions without merit.

CitizenX said...

"But it is not charity in the Christian sense -- that is to say "uplifting" sense of the term"

Why "Christian" sense? Are you just using this as an attempt to shoehorn your own religious beliefs into this blog?

*purses lips*

You slyboots.

Anonymous said...

I'm a bit puzzled that you would raise the specter of American progressives boycotting Israel in a post about Challah for Hunger. Hillel runs Challah for Hunger. Hillel contains Jews. Who tends to support Israel? Jews.

Additionally, while it would be preferable to teach the residents of Darfur to fish (metaphor: I imagine fish-filled lakes are rare in the desert) it is still charitable to provide them with fish that you've already caught. After all, if someone has died of hunger, you can't teach them to fish. Once the immediate hunger crisis in Darfur is alleviated, albeit temporarily, we can teach the residents of Darfur meaningful trades.

John said...

While I agree with you on divestments, the main issue, obviously, is thus:

How on *earth* could anyone, ever, support more peacable methods over the willing embrace of state-sponsored murder? Aren't we supposed to be progressing as a civilization?

Fucking hippies, huh?

Charles Johnson said...

Have you ever considered that maybe the reason there's a food shortage is that there is effectively a blockade against trade with them?

The idea that we ought to teach them trades is fundamentally paternalistic and likely to be ineffective.

On the question of how on earth you can support trade, you need only look at what happens when you don't support it. Nazi Germany anyone?